لنستخرج كنوزا من المعرفة و الإبداع و العلم و الأفكار
When Türkiye heads to the polls on May 14, all indicators show that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will be up against the most serious political challenge of his career. Opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is neck and neck with the longtime leader, but his victory is no foregone conclusion. The rhetoric is sharpening on both sides, and an opposition rally was interrupted and marred by violence over the weekend when Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu was pelted with stones, which also wounded at least a dozen people. Erdoğan’s ratings may no longer be as high as before, but his core base mostly remains loyal, and he will use all his advantages as the head of Türkiye’s politicized executive presidential system to win.
Analyses on the foreign policy implications of the elections have primarily focused on what changes can be expected in Ankara’s approach to international relations after the votes are tallied. Western capitals should also be contemplating their own approach to postelection Türkiye. The United States and the European Union must be prepared to seize any new opportunity that may present itself to improve relations with Türkiye and encourage it to come back into the fold.
IF ERDOĞAN WINS
The margin for creative thinking will be limited if Erdoğan prevails. Twenty-one years of experience with the incumbent government has mostly exhausted the West’s expectations for a qualitative improvement in relations, leaving little room for pleasant surprises. Should he emerge victorious, Erdoğan and his sense of invincibility will reach new highs, which will further fuel his fiery mannerism.
But the realities of his self-created economic disaster—as well as Türkiye’s parliamentary dynamics, which will almost certainly no longer be as favorable for him postelection—could temper his actions.
Türkiye will be in dire need of foreign financial flows, and Erdoğan will have to conduct foreign policy within the constraints of that reality, which will require less adventurism and more stability. But relations with the United States and European countries will remain transactional, rendering them void of resilience and vulnerable to circumstantial crises.
IF THE OPPOSITION WINS
cenario in which Kılıçdaroğlu defeats Erdoğan likely would be a different story. Political change could open a window to reset relations, which would be a welcome development from a transatlantic perspective.
The opposition alliance’s election manifesto on common policies, which entails 2,300 goals, vows to strengthen Türkiye’s democratic standards and advance its global interests by upholding international law, abiding by international commitments, and not infusing foreign policy decisions with ideological or domestic political considerations. This is a meaningful commitment, given Türkiye’s recent foreign policy trajectory, and a promising starting point for the opposition—but one that will have to be corroborated in action. This is especially true for matters that Ankara sees through a national security lens, such as its fight against terrorism, the Cyprus dispute, and its interests in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. But managing such fraught topics arguably could become easier with Ankara acting under the mindset outlined by the opposition.
If Türkiye displays genuine resolve to revive its democratic credentials and rekindle its ties with the West, its allies and Western partners should embrace this reorientation in the same spirit. They should have an engagement strategy and a set of practical steps in mind for that purpose. Two critical actors that can help drive such change are the United States and the European Union.
THE UNITED STATES
Türkiye’s relationship with the United States has traditionally been a standard-setter for Ankara’s place in the West, but the current picture is uninspiring. Türkiye is under U.S. sanctions for purchasing the Russian S-400 air and missile defense system, and Washington is concerned with Ankara’s deepening ties with Moscow. U.S. President Joe Biden has kept Erdoğan at arm’s length and excluded him from the U.S.-led Summit for Democracy series over the decline in the rule of law and democratic standards. Türkiye, in turn, is outraged by the U.S. policy of support for Kurdish elements in Syria affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party.
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